Arctic Fox

The most eye-catching number in Arctic Fox's record is its performance on wet or muddy ground: 2 wins from just 5 races, meaning it has won 40% of the time when conditions turn soft. That is a remarkable conversion rate — nearly 1 in every 2 races when the ground is against most horses. Compare that to its overall record of 1 win in every 11 and the picture becomes clear: Arctic Fox is a different animal when the rain comes down. Martin Todhunter, who trains the horse out of his yard in Orton, Cumbria, will know this better than anyone. His operation has sent out 9 winners this season, so this is a stable that knows how to place a horse where it has a chance, and a wet forecast at the right track could easily open the door for Arctic Fox again.

Jockey David Nolan has been the regular partner, riding in 9 of those 32 races and winning once together — a win rate of around 11%, which actually sits above the horse's overall average. The current run of six races without a win is not alarming given the overall profile; this is a horse that has always needed things to fall right. The last six runs do show some encouragement though, with two third-place finishes and a runner-up mixed in alongside the blanks.

Most of Arctic Fox's racing has come at Class 5 level, which represents the bread-and-butter end of the sport, and it has won 2 of its 13 races at that level. That 15% win rate — roughly 1 in 7 — is solid for a horse operating in competitive everyday races. With the right conditions underfoot and a suitable track, Arctic Fox remains the kind of horse that can catch you by surprise. It raced just yesterday, so it is very much still in the game.