Alba Crus

The most recent form figures tell an interesting story: finishing ninth and then fourth and third before that win arrived, with a fifth on the other side of it. That sequence of placed runs building into a breakthrough, then a slightly disappointing run afterwards, is pretty typical of a horse still finding its feet. Racing at Class 4 level — solidly mid-tier, not the biggest stages but not the easiest races either — Alba Crus has won one from three at that level, or roughly one in three, which is a decent return if it can do it consistently.

James Bowen has been the regular partner in the saddle, riding Alba Crus in five of the six races and taking that Newton Abbot win. Their combined record stands at one win from five attempts together, meaning they click into the winner's spot about one in every five times they line up. That kind of continuity between horse and jockey matters — it takes time for a rider to understand a horse's quirks, and Bowen clearly has more feel for this one than most. The trainer is Warren Greatrex, whose yard at Upper Lambourn has been in excellent form this season with 50 winners already sent out — a productive, well-organised operation that knows how to place a horse to its best advantage. Alba Crus raced just one day ago, so this is very much a horse in the thick of its season right now, and with a trainer firing on all cylinders behind it, another visit to the winner's enclosure is not out of the question.