Zhang Fei

His record at Class 5 — the bread-and-butter level of British racing — is telling. One win from 15 races at that level works out to winning roughly 1 in every 15, which is modest even by the standards of that grade. It suggests Zhang Fei is a horse who often finds one or two too good, hovering in the places rather than getting his nose in front. His recent form backs that up: in his last six races, he has finished fifth, fourth, seventh, fifth, and seventh, with one run not resulting in a recorded finish. Competitive enough to feature, not quite good enough to win.

The conditions where Zhang Fei genuinely comes alive are wet, soft ground and distances of two miles or more. On soft ground he has won 2 from 8 races — 25%, or roughly 1 in every 4 — which is a dramatically better return than his overall record suggests. Stretch the trip out to two miles and beyond and his win rate climbs to 18%, or 2 from 11. Those two facts together paint a picture of a horse who needs patience — in the race and in the weather forecast.

His most recent win came at Fakenham on 22 December 2024, over 17 months ago now, which is a long dry spell. Before that, his first career win came at Windsor back in August 2022. Fern O'Brien, who has ridden him in 10 of his races, has a notably strong record on him — 2 wins from those 10 rides works out to 20%, or 1 in every 5, which is significantly better than Zhang Fei's overall numbers. That partnership is clearly worth watching when it comes together.

Trainer Fergal O'Brien, based in Withington in Gloucestershire, has had a strong season with 90 winners sent out, so the yard clearly knows how to find the right spot for a horse. With Zhang Fei, the formula seems clear enough: get him to two miles, find some soft ground, and let Fern O'Brien do the steering.