Wendrock

At 8% — roughly 1 win from every 13 races — his win rate is low, but Gordon Elliott, who trains him at Longwood in Co Meath, clearly sees more in the horse than the bare numbers suggest. Elliott's yard is one of the most powerful operations in Ireland, having sent out 209 winners already this season, so when a trainer of that calibre keeps faith with a horse, it is usually worth paying attention to why.

Elliott offered a telling insight earlier this year after Wendrock finished seventh in a Grade 1 — one of the top races in the sport — at Leopardstown. Rather than writing the run off, Elliott pointed out that the horse had actually moved through the race travelling well, only to burn out after committing to his challenge too soon. In other words, the tactics cost him, not his ability. That distinction matters. A horse that tires because it has nothing left is a different animal to one that tires because it was asked the question half a furlong too early.

Now five years old and back in work after a 40-day break, Wendrock has not won in his last six races. His recent form shows a string of mid-to-back-of-field finishes alongside a handful of placed efforts, and that inconsistency makes him a puzzle to assess. But Elliott has previously floated the Fred Winter Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival as a potential target — and that is not a throwaway comment. The Fred Winter is a big, competitive race that tends to suit horses with ability who have been running at a high level without quite converting it into wins. If Elliott is thinking along those lines, he evidently believes Wendrock belongs in that conversation. Whether the horse can prove it is the question his next few races will need to answer.