Warm Spell

That Newbury win, though, was the real thing. Mark Loughnane, who trains Warm Spell at Rock Farm in Worcestershire, was excited enough about him at the time to aim him at a £300,000 race at Doncaster the following month — a significant target that suggests the yard once had big ideas for this horse. Loughnane has had a productive season with 25 winners from the yard, so he clearly knows how to place a horse to win.

At distances of seven furlongs to a mile, Warm Spell has won 1 from 8 races — about 1 in every 8 — which is modest but at least points to where his best chance lies if the winning thread is to be picked up again. At Class 4 level, which represents the middle tier of British racing, he has won 1 from 5 attempts, a rate of 1 in 5, which is actually his most encouraging statistic. It suggests that when he is dropped into the right company on a good day, the ability is still there. The problem is those good days have become increasingly rare.

Having raced just yesterday, Warm Spell is clearly an active campaign horse rather than one being nursed along carefully. At five years old, there is still time to rediscover form, but with nearly three years since his last win, he now needs to prove he belongs in the conversation rather than just fill out a field.