Until Dawn

Both of Until Dawn's wins came in a tight window early in 2025 — first at Newcastle in January, then at Southwell in February — and nothing since. That was 15 months ago now, and the recent form figures of 6-3-7-8-5-9 tell their own story: a third-place finish is the only real bright spot in a sequence that has been mostly disappointing. The horse raced just yesterday, so it is clearly being kept busy, but busy and successful are two different things at the moment.

The most interesting number in Until Dawn's record is what happens on normal ground. Two wins from 7 races in standard conditions gives a win rate of 29% — nearly 1 in 3 — which is a genuinely strong return and suggests the horse has a clear preference. When the ground is right, Until Dawn is a different animal. The sprint distances suit too: 1 win from 4 races over the shortest trips shows it can produce its best when the race is quick and direct rather than a test of stamina.

Tom Eaves has been the regular partner, riding in 8 of the 16 races and winning 2 of them — a win rate of 25%, or 1 in every 4 rides together. That is a solid partnership by any measure, and the fact that both career wins have come with Eaves aboard is not a coincidence worth ignoring. Alan Brown's yard has sent out 10 winners this season, so the operation is in decent form even if Until Dawn itself has gone quiet. Whether the combination of the right ground, a sprint trip, and Tom Eaves in the saddle can unlock another win is the question worth watching.