True Promise

The Newcastle angle is the most interesting part of the story. Three of True Promise's four wins have come at that track — out of 13 races there, which works out at roughly 1 win in every 4 attempts. For context, that is almost double the rate it wins anywhere else. Some horses simply take to a course: the way the bends fall, the camber of the straight, the feel of the place. Whatever it is about Newcastle, True Promise clearly likes it. The first win came there in January 2024, and the most recent win — now 18 months ago — came back there in November 2024. The track has been good to it, and the horse has been good to the track.

Trainer Fionn McSharry has spoken warmly about True Promise, noting the horse was quite immature early on and needed careful handling. After winning on debut and following up quickly, the handicapper took notice and made life harder — which is partly why the winning has slowed. McSharry's yard has sent out 7 winners this season, so there is form in the yard, and patience seems to be the operating principle with this horse.

Jockey Shane Gray is the name to know here. In 12 races together, he has been on board for all 4 wins — a win rate of 33%, or roughly 1 in every 3 rides. That partnership clearly works, and when you see Gray's name down to ride, it is worth paying attention.

True Promise is at its best on normal ground, where it has won 4 of 24 races (17%, or just under 1 in 6), and the small sample at 7 furlongs to a mile — 1 win from 3 races — hints there may be more to come at that distance. It hasn't won in its last 6 races, but the recent form shows two second-place finishes, so the sharpness hasn't gone. This is a horse in search of its next moment, and Newcastle feels like the most likely place it will find one.