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Tropical Storm

There's a horse that has made York its personal stage, and the numbers tell a striking story. Tropical Storm has won just 2 races from 15 outings overall — roughly 1 in every 7 or 8 attempts — but both of those wins have come at York, and both were Class 1 races, the highest level the sport has to offer in Britain. That is not a coincidence; that is a horse that saves its best for the biggest moments.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
4 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Eqtidaar
Mother
Avon Breeze
Owner
Teme Valley Racing
Rating
93

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
15
Career races
2
Wins
13.3%
Win rate
avg ~10%
33.3%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

The York record deserves to be read slowly: 2 wins from just 4 races at the track. That means Tropical Storm has won half of its top-level races at that particular venue, which for a horse with an otherwise modest career record is genuinely remarkable. Most horses never win a Class 1 race at all. This one has won two, both in the space of nine months, and both at the same course. The first came on 24 August 2024 — Tropical Storm's first career win — and the second followed on 15 May 2025. A debut at the top table, and then a return to prove it was no fluke.

The wider picture is more complicated. Outside York, Tropical Storm has not found the winner's enclosure, and recent form has been patchy — finishing 14th twice and 9th and 8th in a run of six consecutive races without a win. That sequence suggests a horse that perhaps needs everything to fall right: the right track, the right conditions. On fast, dry ground, the record sharpens considerably — 2 wins from 6 races, or roughly 1 in 3, compared to nothing on wetter surfaces.

Jockey Oisin Murphy has been the regular partner, riding Tropical Storm in 11 of those 15 races and picking up both wins. That loyalty between horse and rider matters — Murphy clearly knows what this horse needs and when to ask for it. The trainer is Andrew Balding, whose yard at Kingsclere in Hampshire has been in outstanding form, sending out 202 winners this season alone. Tropical Storm may not be the stable's headline act, but it earns its keep at the very top level when conditions suit.

At four years old and still active — it raced just yesterday — there is every reason to think the York story is not finished. When the ground dries out and the calendar brings the big meetings around, Tropical Storm is the kind of horse worth keeping a close eye on.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good_to_firm ground: 2 wins from 6 starts (33%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 7 starts
Struggles on RH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to firm (drying out)
Loves
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Good (firm-ish)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
5F – 6½F
🏅 Competition Level
Class 1 (elite)
Loves
Class 2 (high-level)
Avoids
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
13 May
12th
York
5f – 6½f · Good · 22 runners
1 May
3rd
Goodwood
5f – 6½f · Good · 11 runners
4 Apr
8th
Musselburgh
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 14 runners
13 Sep
9th
Doncaster
5f – 6½f · Good · 22 runners
23 Aug
14th
York
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 20 runners
26 Jul
14th
Ascot
5f – 6½f · Good · 14 runners
17 Jun
17th
Ascot
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 23 runners
15 May
🏆 Won
York
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 9 runners
3 May
6th
Newmarket
5f – 6½f · Good · 11 runners
13 Sep
4th
Doncaster
5f – 6½f · Good · 12 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
18.2%
Win rate
2/11
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
York
Galloping
4 2 wins, 2 other 13 May 50%
Ascot
Galloping
3 1 second, 2 other 26 Jul 0%
Goodwood
Undulating
2 1 third, 1 other 1 May 0%
Newmarket
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 other 3 May 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
2 2 other 13 Sep 0%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 other 19 Apr 0%
Musselburgh
Sharp
1 1 other 4 Apr 0%