Tranquil Sea

The horse got off the mark at Cork in March 2024, and even on debut over hurdles the team were bullish about what was to come. James Nolan, the assistant trainer, noted afterwards that jockey Sean Flanagan felt he had "loads of horse going to the line" — the kind of comment that suggests a horse with more to give than it had shown. That promise has been borne out: Tranquil Sea won at Plumpton just three weeks ago, finishing the job on what his jockey Harry Skelton described as less than ideal ground for him. "He probably prefers a longer track where you can get him rolling," Skelton said after the race, "but we came for the prize-money and we got it." That's a useful horse — one that wins even when the track isn't playing to its strengths.

Normal ground is clearly where it thrives: 2 wins from 7 races on those conditions, a win rate of 29%, meaning it wins nearly 1 in every 3 races when the track rides as it should. Step it up to the top levels — Class 1 or 2 races, the prestige end of the sport — and it hasn't yet converted, going 0 from 4 at that grade. That's not a disgrace; Class 2 races are as competitive as British racing gets, and simply being entered in them tells you the yard believes the horse belongs in that company.

Dan Skelton trains it out of Alcester in Warwickshire, and his operation is one of the most prolific in Britain right now — 194 winners already this season. When a yard of that size and quality keeps running a horse, it's because they believe there's more to come. Skelton himself said as much after a slightly sticky run at Newbury over an extended trip, suggesting a short break and a fresher campaign. That reset appears to have paid off, with Tranquil Sea winning at Plumpton and racing again just yesterday. A horse that stays well, wins on tracks that don't even suit it, and has a trainer convinced there are more wins in it — that's worth keeping an eye on.