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Tornado Alert

Tornado Alert is a 3-year-old with a tidy record on paper — one win and three places from five races, a 20% win rate that works out to roughly 1 in every 5 outings — but the numbers hide a horse that is still finding its feet at the highest level. Trained by Saeed bin Suroor out of Newmarket, one of the most respected yards in British racing, the horse arrives back in the spotlight after a break of nearly nine months. That is a long time away from the track, and how it returns will tell us a lot about what the team has planned for it.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
3 years old
Sex
Colt
Father
Too Darn Hot
Mother
Bint Almatar
Owner
Godolphin
Rating
112

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
5
Career races
1
Wins
20%
Win rate
avg ~10%
60%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
283 days
Since last race

🏁 Next Race

Today
Kempton (AW)
About 1.5 miles · Slightly slow all-weather · 7 runners

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

The one moment Tornado Alert has genuinely shone came at Newcastle on 3 October 2024, where it picked up its first and only career win. It has not won since — and with that victory now 18 months in the rear view mirror, there is some pressure on this comeback to prove it was not a one-off. Recent form reads 2-6-4-1-3, meaning it has been competitive at times but has also had some disappointing runs, particularly that sixth-place finish which sticks out in an otherwise respectable sequence.

The distance picture offers a bit of encouragement. Over a mile and one or two furlongs — a middle distance that suits a horse that stays well without being a true stayer — Tornado Alert has won 1 from 3 races, a win rate of 33%, or roughly 1 in every 3 attempts. That is meaningfully better than its overall record and suggests it is at its best when the trip gives it room to settle and finish. The problem is the company it has been keeping. All three of its runs at that distance have come at Class 1 level, the very top tier of British racing, and it has not won any of them. Competing at that grade without a win is not a failure — just getting there signals that the yard believes this horse belongs in elite company — but it does mean Tornado Alert still has something to prove.

The stable has sent out 15 winners this season, which shows Newmarket is in good form. Whether Tornado Alert can add to that tally after such a long absence is the question worth watching. Nine months off is a serious reset, and first time back is always a little unknown — but a well-supported yard returning a horse with this profile clearly has something in mind.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Well suited by 1m1f – 1m2f distances: 33% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
Returning from a 283-day absence

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Standard (all-weather)
Unknown
Good (firm-ish)
Unknown
Good to firm (drying out)
Unknown
📏 Race Distance
1M1F – 1M2F
Loves
7F – 1M
Unknown
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
🏅 Competition Level
Class 1 (elite)
Avoids
Class 5 (entry-level)
Unknown
🏟 Track Shape
Right-handed, long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
19 Jun
2nd
Ascot
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 14 runners
7 Jun
6th
Epsom Downs
1m6f – 2m · Good · 19 runners
3 May
4th
Newmarket
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 11 runners
3 Oct
🏆 Won
Newcastle
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 11 runners
14 Sep
3rd
Lingfield Park
7f – 1m · Standard · 9 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
100%
Win rate
1/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
James McDonald Current Jockey
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Newcastle
Galloping
1 1 win 3 Oct 100%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
1 1 third 14 Sep 0%
Newmarket
Galloping
1 1 other 3 May 0%
Ascot
Galloping
1 1 second 19 Jun 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 7 Jun 0%