Thunder Rock

The headline number is a 30% win rate across his career, meaning he wins roughly 3 in every 10 races he enters. That is a genuinely impressive figure for any horse, but context makes it more striking: he typically lines up in Class 1 company — the very top tier of British racing — and has won just 1 from 11 at that level, which is about what you'd expect when you're regularly taking on the best. What separates him from the crowd is that he has actually done it. That Class 1 win came at Carlisle in November 2023, and the jockey that day, Sean Bowen, was emphatic afterwards: from the moment he gave Thunder Rock a squeeze three fences out, he never had a moment's worry. The jumping was clean, the trip was right, and the horse did everything asked of him.

The man in the saddle matters here too. A P Heskin has ridden Thunder Rock in 13 of his races and won 6 of them — a remarkable win rate of 46%, nearly 1 in every 2 rides together. That kind of partnership, built on trust and familiarity, is worth a great deal in a sport where so much comes down to split-second decisions over fences.

Trainer Olly Murphy, based in Wilmcote in Warwickshire, has been candid about a difficult spell. Thunder Rock had a heart irregularity when he ran at Ascot and was never quite the same horse afterwards. Murphy gave him a proper break, and the horse has come back refreshed, slipping down the weights in the process — which, if he rediscovers his best, could make him well placed in future races. Murphy's yard is in rude health this season with 146 winners sent out, and he clearly has serious faith in this old campaigner. After Thunder Rock's most recent run at Kelso, Murphy was already talking about targeting a flat three-mile chase at Aintree — the kind of race, he believes, that suits Thunder Rock perfectly.

One more thing worth noting: give Thunder Rock soft, wet ground and he becomes a different proposition. He has won 4 from 9 races in those conditions — 44%, nearly half. When the rain comes down, this horse comes alive.