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The Tide Turns

There is a particular cruelty to a horse whose name promises momentum but whose record tells a different story. The Tide Turns is an 8-year-old with just 1 win from 17 races — that is a win rate of roughly 1 in every 17 outings — and that single victory came over three years ago, at Punchestown in January 2022. Since then, across six more races, the winning feeling has not returned.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
8 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Chestnut
Father
Sea The Moon
Mother
Red Roxanne
Owner
S G Allen
Rating
108

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
17
Career races
1
Wins
5.9%
Win rate
avg ~10%
17.6%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

That Punchestown win, though, was genuinely eye-catching. The horse jumped cleanly throughout and, in the words of trainer Gordon Elliott at the time, did everything right. Jack Kennedy, who rode that day, felt they might have hit the front a little soon — but the horse held on, and Elliott was effusive afterwards, calling him a nice fun horse and clearly expecting more to come. When a trainer of Elliott's stature talks that way, you pay attention.

What followed was more complicated. A wind operation was carried out — a surgical procedure designed to help a horse breathe more freely at full gallop — and by October 2022 a new trainer, Stephen Allen, was expressing cautious optimism, suggesting the horse could be well placed in the right race if the operation had done its job. That kind of quiet confidence from a yard is worth noting, even if the results since have not quite matched it.

Kennedy has partnered The Tide Turns six times in total, winning once together — that famous Punchestown day — which works out at roughly 1 in every 6 rides. Recent form, however, makes for difficult reading: finishes of 12th, 5th, 10th, and three non-completions in the last six races. Allen's yard has sent out 2 winners this season, so it is an operation capable of finding the right race. The horse raced just yesterday, which means the yard are keeping him busy and believing there is still something to aim at. At 8, time is not exactly on his side — but then again, the name does suggest things can change quickly.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on soft ground: 1 wins from 3 starts (33%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 7 starts
Poor record on yielding ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 6 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Soft (muddy)
Loves
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Unknown
Good (firm-ish)
Avoids
Yielding (slightly soft)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
Long Distance (2M+)
1M6F – 2M
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 1 (elite)
Unknown
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Unknown
🏟 Track Shape
Right-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, tight
Unknown
Long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
Left-handed, tight turns
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
10 May
7th
Ludlow
1m6f – 2m · Good · 7 runners
6 Nov
DNF
Newbury
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft · 13 runners
13 Oct
DNF
hereford
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 4 runners
18 Jul
10th
Leopardstown
1m6f – 2m · Good · 13 runners
7 Jul
5th
Limerick
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 14 runners
2 Jun
12th
Listowel
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 16 runners
14 May
9th
Killarney
Long Distance (2m+) · Soft · 12 runners
5 Feb
DNF
Leopardstown
Long Distance (2m+) · Yielding · 17 runners
27 Dec
13th
Leopardstown
Long Distance (2m+) · Soft · 14 runners
28 Jul
15th
Galway
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 21 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
16.7%
Win rate
1/6
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Davy Russell
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Keithen Kennedy
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Leopardstown
Galloping
4 4 other 18 Jul 0%
Punchestown
Galloping
1 1 win 17 Jan 100%
Galway
Tight
1 1 other 28 Jul 0%
Listowel
Sharp
1 1 other 2 Jun 0%
Fairyhouse
Galloping
1 1 third 3 Apr 0%
Bellewstown
Sharp
1 1 other 2 Jul 0%
Ludlow
Undulating
1 1 other 10 May 0%
Limerick
Galloping
1 1 other 7 Jul 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
1 1 third 30 Sep 0%
Cheltenham
Galloping
1 1 other 15 Mar 0%
Gowran Park
Undulating
1 1 other 19 Feb 0%
Killarney
Sharp
1 1 other 14 May 0%
hereford 1 1 other 13 Oct 0%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 other 6 Nov 0%