The Great Escape

The recent form makes for uncomfortable reading. Going back through the last six runs, the sequence reads as a slide from promise into struggle — a third, then a second, then three finishes back in seventh and eighth, and a missed run in between. That second place will catch the eye of anyone who follows the horse, because it shows the talent is there, but the direction of travel since then has been in the wrong direction entirely. Raced just two days ago, this is an active campaign with no obvious signs of the yard giving up on finding the right opportunity.

That yard is worth paying attention to. Jonjo and A.J. O'Neill operate out of Cheltenham — about as well-connected an address as you can have in British racing — and they have sent out 53 winners already this season. That is a stable in form, which means The Great Escape isn't being left to drift. When a busy, successful operation keeps running a horse that hasn't won, it usually means they believe the win is coming. Whether they are right is another matter.

The horse has spent most of its time in Class 4 races, which sit in the middle of the racing ladder — not the top end, but not the bottom either. Five races at that level without a win is a test of patience for everyone involved. The logical next question is whether dropping into softer company might finally tip the balance, or whether there is something about the way this horse races that makes winning harder to achieve than the raw ability warrants. Four places from nine races tells you it is good enough to be there. Turning good enough into good enough to win is the puzzle the O'Neill team is still working on.