The Dark Baron

What makes The Dark Baron genuinely interesting is how much he improves when the conditions and the setup suit him. Ridden by Laura Coughlan, he has won 3 of 13 races together — a striking 23% partnership win rate — which is far better than his career average and suggests that this jockey has cracked his code. At his favoured distance of around a mile and three to four furlongs, he wins roughly 1 in every 3 races. More tellingly, when he races on normal ground — which seems to bring out the best in him — he has won 2 of 10 outings, a 20% win rate that sits well above his overall form. When racing at Class 6 level, where the opposition is at the more modest end, he has won 3 of 10 races, a 30% win rate that shows he belongs in these contests.

His recent form tells a different story: three fourth-place finishes and a sixth in his last four races suggest he has been running without winning lately, though he did finish third and place fourth before that. After five months without a victory, The Dark Baron will be one for Turner and Coughlan to keep close to the ground. He clearly has the ability to win races, but he needs the stars to align — the right distance, the right ground, the right class — and the right rider in the saddle.