Sopelana

Start with the ground. On wet, muddy conditions, Sopelana has won 2 of just 4 races — a 50% win rate that is frankly extraordinary. Half the time it has raced in the conditions it loves, it has won. That is not a quirk or a fluke; that is a horse with a very specific superpower. When the forecast is bad, Sopelana is the kind of horse a knowledgeable friend would quietly mention before you look at anything else on the card.

Then there is Punchestown. Sopelana has raced there three times and won twice — two wins from three races at the same track is the sort of record that makes trainers keep coming back. Something about that course suits this horse, and Collins has clearly taken note. The most recent of those wins came on 26 January 2026, just three months ago, so this is not a horse feeding off old memories. It is a horse in current form at a track it genuinely dominates.

The partnership with jockey Jordan Gainford is worth flagging too. In five races together, the pair have won twice — a 40% win rate, or 2 from 5. For context, finding a jockey-horse combination that clicks at that frequency is rare and tells you these two have developed a real understanding. When Gainford is booked, it is a signal worth paying attention to.

One honest caveat: Sopelana has raced three times at the top end of its usual level — Class 1 or 2 standard — and has not won any of them. Step it up into the big occasions and the record is 0 from 3. This is a horse that thrives in its comfort zone, not necessarily one built for marquee days. But in the right race, on a wet track at Punchestown, with Gainford in the saddle? That is a very different conversation entirely.