Shabalko d'Herm

The win rate of 33% — roughly 1 in every 3 races — is genuinely solid for a horse with limited experience. Both victories came in the autumn and early winter of 2025, first at Uttoxeter in October and then at Bangor-on-Dee in November, suggesting it hit a productive purple patch once it had a few races under its belt. The worry, though, is what has happened since. Recent form reads 5th, 6th, and 7th in its last three outings — a clear step backwards after those wins. That kind of dip after a bright spell is one of the more common puzzles in racing, and it will be interesting to see whether the team at Naunton can find the key again.

Shabalko d'Herm is trained by Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, a father-and-son partnership based in the Gloucestershire village of Naunton. With 61 winners already on the board this season, the yard is clearly in fine form — which makes the horse's recent run of below-par performances a little more notable. When the stable is firing at that rate and a horse is still finishing mid-pack, it tends to mean they are still searching for the right conditions or opportunity. One to watch rather than one to back right now, but with a yard this productive behind it, another winning day is far from out of the question.