Saxon Grace

The numbers tell a story of genuine improvement. Across 18 career races, Saxon Grace has won three times and placed a further five times, giving it a win rate of roughly 1 in every 5-6 races. Not spectacular on paper, but recent form matters more than career averages, and this horse is clearly doing something right now. The standout clue is what the ground does to its performance. On fast, dry ground, Saxon Grace has won two of three races—a 67% win rate that is genuinely impressive. Put it on soft or muddy going and the numbers drop sharply. For anyone wanting to follow this horse, dry ground is your signal to pay attention.

Distance also plays a role. Stepped up to races between 1 mile 1 furlong and 1 mile 2 furlongs, Saxon Grace has won two of four—50% of the time. Shorter than that and longer than that, and the horse doesn't fire with the same consistency. These seem like the sweet spots where everything clicks. The first win came at Redcar back in early August, and with three victories now in the bag, Bourke's yard clearly has this horse running to a plan. With only one day between races at the moment, Saxon Grace is clearly a frequent runner, and that recent win at Ripon suggests there is more to come.