San Aer

The first win came at Killarney back in October 2021, and the most recent at Galway in October 2023 — now 31 months ago, which is a long drought by anyone's measure. The last six races have produced nothing better than a second place, with a couple of double-digit finishes mixed in, so the form line is patchy rather than encouraging. Still, the horse was racing just one day ago, which means the yard are clearly not giving up.

Where San Aer genuinely earns its keep is in the conditions. On wet, muddy ground it has won 2 of its 12 races — a 17% win rate, or roughly 1 in every 6 — which is notably better than its overall record. That is a meaningful difference. Some horses tolerate heavy ground; San Aer appears to actually thrive in it. Get the right course, the right conditions, and it becomes a different proposition.

The preferred distance of one mile one furlong to one mile two furlongs has produced 3 of its 4 wins from 27 races at that range — again, clearly where this horse is most at home. Ross O'Sullivan's yard at Kilcullen has sent out 35 winners this season, so this is an active, capable operation. Ben Coen, the most regular jockey on board, has won 1 from their 9 races together — about 1 in every 9 — a figure that reflects the horse's overall limitations rather than any lack of effort.

San Aer is not a horse that is going to win a top race. But it is the kind of honest, durable competitor that fills out racing cards week after week, and on a wet autumn afternoon at the right track, it still has the profile of a horse that could surprise someone.