Sahara Magic

That sole win came at Southwell, and it's worth noting that her recent form reads 7-7-7-1, meaning she finished at the back of the field in three consecutive races before producing that winning run. Horses that string together a sequence like that and then win can sometimes be frustrating to follow, but they can also surprise you when conditions finally suit. She hasn't raced in 87 days, so she returns here after a short break — which could mean the team has been waiting for the right opportunity, or simply that she needed time to reset after a busy spell.

At Class 5 level — the bread-and-butter tier of British racing, not the glamour end — she has won 1 from 3 races, a 33% win rate that amounts to roughly 1 in every 3 races at that grade. That's an encouraging number. It suggests she's competitive when pitched at the right level, even if she's shown a tendency to run flat when things don't go her way.

She's trained by Michael Appleby at his yard in Oakham, Rutland, and the operation has been in sharp form this season with 74 winners on the board. A trainer sending out that volume of winners tends to know when a horse is ready to run — and when it isn't. The fact that Sahara Magic is back in training after her break is a decent sign in itself.