Rodney Bay

His best distance sits between a mile and six furlongs and two miles, where he has won 1 from 9 races in that range — a win rate of 11%, more than double his overall career figure. That difference matters. It suggests the team at Lambourn know where his best chance lies, and that when conditions suit, he is a more competitive animal than his overall record implies.

His two career wins came at Downpatrick in October 2022 and then at The Curragh in October 2023 — both in the autumn, both in Ireland. Whether that is coincidence or a sign that he travels well to Irish tracks is hard to say, but it is the kind of pattern that does not go unnoticed in a yard. His most recent win, at The Curragh, is now 30 months ago, and his last six runs have produced no wins and three eighth-place finishes among them. That is a lean spell by any measure.

Regular jockey P J O'Hanlon has been on board for 6 of those races without getting him into the winner's enclosure. That is not necessarily a criticism — the horse's overall record suggests he makes his the yard work for every placing, let alone a win. Nick Scholfield's yard in Lambourn has sent out 19 winners this season, so there is clearly ability in the stable. The question for Rodney Bay is whether there is one more winning day left in him — and whether the right race, at the right trip, on the right day, can bring it out.