Rizal

The clearest pattern in Rizal's record is a marked preference for fast, dry ground. On such surfaces, the horse has won two of three races — a striking 67 per cent success rate that stands out sharply against the overall picture. This is the sort of detail that matters in planning races: on heavy or wet ground, Rizal's chances dip significantly. Trainer George Scott, based at Newmarket, has a strong yard behind him this season with 52 winners already, and he will be aware of these ground preferences when mapping out future opportunities.

One puzzle is the partnership with Ben Coen, Rizal's most frequent jockey. They have raced together six times without a win between them, which is an uncomfortable statistic given that Rizal has won twice overall. It raises the question of whether a change of rider might unlock something, or whether the races chosen simply haven't suited. For now, Rizal remains a horse with promise on the right ground and in the right race, but one that still has to prove it can string wins together rather than scatter them across a season.