Risk Averse Rebel

The three-year-old has placed in three of his nine races and his recent run of finishing third, third, third, fourth, then fifth tells you something important: he is consistently competitive without ever quite getting over the line. That is frustrating for everyone involved, but it is not the profile of a horse going nowhere. He is knocking on the door, race after race.

The explanation, according to trainer Gary Hanmer at his yard in Tattenhall, Cheshire, is largely one of development. Risk Averse Rebel was simply too big and immature as a two-year-old to do much with, so his three runs at that age were really just administrative — giving him enough experience to get a handicap rating rather than expecting results. Now, as a three-year-old filling out and strengthening, he is showing a level of form that has the yard genuinely encouraged. Hanmer, who has sent out 19 winners already this season, knows what a ready horse looks like.

The plan that excites people around him is a step up in distance. He is set to head to Doncaster on April 21 for his first race over a mile and a half, on grass — a significant change from what he has been asked to do before. The thinking is that he has simply never been given the room to stretch out and show what he is capable of. Horses that place repeatedly over shorter trips often blossom dramatically when the distance is right. That is the bet being made here.

What makes this particularly interesting is that Hanmer has been open about his longer-term view: he thinks this horse is crying out for even more distance, and potentially for hurdles racing, where stamina is the currency. The flat trip to Doncaster looks as much like a scouting mission as a genuine shot at a first win — a chance to see how he handles the step up before considering what comes next. He raced just yesterday, so he is as fit as he will ever be. If the mile and a half unlocks something, Risk Averse Rebel could be a very different proposition by the time summer arrives.