Red Spells Danger

The breakthrough came at Ripon in May, and since then Red Spells Danger has tasted success again, most recently at Ascot just two weeks ago. What really catches the eye is what happens when the horse gets a race over the shorter distances — five to six and a half furlongs. Over that range it has won 3 of 7 races, a 43% win rate that suggests those quick, sharp contests play to its strengths. Ask it to step up in class, though, and the picture changes completely: it has run in three top-tier races and failed to win any of them, which tells you it is still operating comfortably at a level below the very top.

David Allan has ridden the horse seven times and won on it twice — a 29% win rate that is notably better than its overall record, and that kind of relationship between horse and jockey can matter. The trainer, Tim Easterby, runs a yard at Great Habton in North Yorkshire that has already sent out 128 winners this season, so Red Spells Danger is in a busy, successful operation. At three years old and still learning, it may yet develop further, but for now it is a horse that works best in shorter races and seems to prefer company at its current level rather than stepping up to challenge the elite.