Plume Noire

There are nonetheless some pockets of encouragement. Gerard Keane's yard at Trim has been active this season with ten winners, and the trainer clearly still believes in Plume Noire enough to keep running it. The horse shows a clear preference for softer, wetter ground, winning 2 of 6 races on such conditions — a 33 per cent win rate that stands out against the overall record. Equally, it races best when given a distance between seven furlongs and a mile, where it has won 3 of 8 races, a win rate of 38 per cent. When James Ryan has been in the saddle, the combination has been even sharper, with two wins from six rides together, a rate of roughly one in three.

The picture, then, is of a horse that remains capable but has fallen into the harder end of the racing game. It needs soft ground, it needs Ryan aboard, and it needs a course that suits its running style — the kind of very specific set of circumstances that become harder to manufacture as a horse ages and loses the bloom of youth. Plume Noire was last in action just a day ago and remains active, but without a win in 28 months, the road back to the winner's circle is growing longer.