Phoenix Moon

What sets Phoenix Moon apart is its obvious preference for Lingfield Park. The horse has won 4 of its 13 races at that track, a win rate of roughly 1 win in every 3 visits. That kind of record at a specific course is not luck — it suggests something about either the track's layout or the type of racing Phoenix Moon encounters there that suits it perfectly. The last of those wins came on 25 March, five months ago now, so there is time and form to recover if the horse finds its way back to the Surrey circuit. Away from Lingfield, the wins dry up considerably, which tells you this is a course specialist rather than an all-weather campaigner.

Denis Coakley's yard at West Ilsley has been in good form this season with 10 winners so far, and Tyler Heard — Phoenix Moon's most regular partner in the saddle — has ridden the horse to 2 wins from 7 races together, a strong 29 per cent win rate. That partnership works. Ground conditions also matter: Phoenix Moon has won 4 times on normal ground from 14 attempts, compared to much thinner returns on softer or faster surfaces.

The concern is recent form. Phoenix Moon has not won in its last six races, with results of 6th, 8th, 8th, 3rd, 2nd and 4th. The pair of place finishes suggest the horse is still competing, but the two eighths and the 6th last time out indicate it may be struggling to find the races it wins. At five years old, if it is to win again, it needs to get back to Lingfield Park or find another track that suits its running style — the kind of course where solid, consistent racing pays off rather than speed traps that expose its limitations.