Pepper Noir

Both of those wins have come at Dundalk, and that is not a coincidence. Pepper Noir has run there 12 times in total, winning 2 of them — that is 1 in every 6 races at the track, compared to a career-wide rate of 1 win in every 11 or 12 outings. Dundalk is an all-weather indoor track that runs through the winter months, and some horses simply take to its tight, artificial surface in a way they never do elsewhere. Pepper Noir appears to be one of them. Both wins came within three weeks of each other in late 2024 — the first on 27 November, the second on 13 December — suggesting the horse hit a purple patch in excellent form and made the most of it.

Distance matters too. Stretch the race out to a mile and six furlongs or beyond, and Pepper Noir's numbers improve sharply. Over those longer distances, the horse has won 2 from 6 races — that is 1 in every 3, which is a genuinely strong record. It suggests a horse that needs time to warm into a race, one that finds its stride when others are starting to tire.

The partnership with jockey Gary Carroll looks significant. Together they have won 2 from 8 races, which works out at 1 in every 4 — well above Pepper Noir's overall average. That kind of familiarity between horse and rider can matter enormously over a longer trip where rhythm and confidence count for as much as raw speed. Trainer John C McConnell's yard in Stamullen has sent out 42 winners this season, so this is not an operation short of knowhow.

The honest caveat is that Pepper Noir has not won in 17 months, and the last six runs have been underwhelming. But the horse raced just yesterday, is clearly still in active training, and the combination of Dundalk, a longer distance, and Carroll in the saddle remains an obvious route back to the winner's enclosure.