Our Papa Smurf

The most revealing number in Our Papa Smurf's record is the one on wet ground. In races run on soft or muddy going, this horse has won 2 from 4 — that's a 50% win rate, which is extraordinary. In other words, when the rain comes and the ground gets testing, Our Papa Smurf turns into a completely different proposition. That's genuinely useful information, because horses who love wet ground can be underestimated on days when fair-weather punters are looking elsewhere.

The partnership with jockey Caoilin Quinn is worth noting too. In five races together, Quinn has ridden Our Papa Smurf to 2 wins — a 40% win rate that stands well above the horse's overall record. That kind of chemistry between horse and rider isn't something you take for granted, and it suggests the pair have developed a real understanding. When Quinn's name is in the saddle, something tends to happen.

The yard behind the horse is Gary & Josh Moore, based in Lower Beeding in West Sussex — a family operation that has sent out 94 winners already this season. That kind of output signals a well-run, busy stable with horses consistently running to their potential, and Our Papa Smurf fits the profile of a horse that is managed carefully and pointed at the right races.

The horse has raced 15 days ago and is currently active, which means the yard — sorry, the team — clearly feel there's more to come. The last win came at Plumpton in January on what was almost certainly wet, winter ground, which lines up perfectly with that standout soft-ground record. Keep an eye on the weather forecast. When the ground gets testing and Caoilin Quinn is booked, Our Papa Smurf is a horse that deserves serious attention.