Oh So Perfect

The wins came three weeks apart earlier this year, with the most recent back in March, which means there is a real gap since that last success. But the last six races tell a more interesting story than the bare record suggests. Rather than trailing home in last place repeatedly, Oh So Perfect has been competitive: a third-place finish, then two second places in a row, suggesting the horse is regularly fighting hard and staying close to the winner. That is the mark of a horse that knows how to run a race, even if it isn't quite getting over the line every time.

Michael Appleby's yard at Oakham has been prolific this season with 71 winners, and Oh So Perfect competes mostly in Class 6 races—the lower levels of the sport—where it has won at a 17 percent rate. At distances between seven furlongs and a mile, the horse really thrives, winning two of six races at that distance, a 33 percent win rate that is substantially better than its overall record. That is the key insight: Oh So Perfect clearly has a distance sweet spot and a course where it belongs, and when those two elements line up, it can win. The challenge now is getting back to Chelmsford with the form and luck to make it three wins on that favoured track.