Nolton Cross

The numbers that really stand out are around ground conditions. On normal ground, Nolton Cross has won 6 of 18 races — that's 1 in every 3, a remarkable conversion rate that tells you this horse is at its absolute best when conditions are neither too wet nor too dry. Find the right surface and you're looking at a completely different animal. There's also a love affair with Southwell: 2 wins from just 5 visits to that track, which is a genuinely impressive hit rate for any horse. Some horses just suit a particular venue — the track layout, the surface, something about the place — and Southwell seems to suit Nolton Cross perfectly.

The one awkward truth in the record is the Class 2 performance: 0 wins from 14 races at that level. These are some of the better races in Britain, and Nolton Cross has simply not been able to break through there yet. It's worth noting, though, that simply competing in 14 such races speaks to a horse the team believes is capable at that level. Whether the win will come is another matter.

Hugo Palmer, training out of Malpas in Cheshire, has had an excellent season with 66 winners already sent out. Palmer noted last October that Nolton Cross had been sidelined by a tendon injury but had been given plenty of time to recover — the leg felt right, the horse was training well, and Palmer saw real potential for a progressive campaign through the winter months on the all-weather tracks. That assessment looks to have been accurate. Regular partner Ross Coakley has ridden the horse in 9 of its races, winning once together, and the pair are clearly familiar with each other. Recent form reads 9-8-4-4-1-4 — a mixed picture, but that win in the sequence is recent and the horse raced just yesterday. Nolton Cross is live and active.