Nazare

The ground matters enormously with Nazare. On wet or muddy conditions, he has won 3 of his 7 races — a 43% win rate that is genuinely impressive. Nearly half his races on that surface have ended in victory, which is the sort of stat that makes his trainer's life much simpler: when the forecast turns grey and the ground softens up, Nazare becomes a very different proposition.

James Owen, who trains out of Newmarket in Suffolk, has had an outstanding season — 204 winners from his yard is a substantial body of work, and it reflects a well-run operation with horses arriving fit and ready. Owen has spoken warmly about Nazare's potential over distances of two and a half miles and beyond, suggesting there is still more to come from this horse as he fills into his role as a hurdler. The fact that he ran well in his earlier races before gaining experience over hurdles last season points to a horse that has been carefully managed rather than rushed.

Nazare opened his account at Huntingdon in January 2025 and followed up with another win at Southwell in November of that year — both victories coming in the conditions he enjoys. His recent form reads 3-6-9 in his last three outings, which is a dip, but he raced just yesterday, so his team is clearly keeping him busy and looking for the right opportunity. At Class 4 level he has won 1 from 4 races — 25%, or roughly 1 in every 4 — which is a respectable return at a competitive tier. The picture that emerges is of a horse who knows what he is doing, who comes alive on soft ground, and who has a trainer confident enough in him to keep finding him races. The next win might not be far away.