Navagio

The most recent victory came at Gowran Park in July 2023, which is now almost three years ago, and Navagio has gone six races without winning since. Recent form reads 6th, 15th, 15th, 18th, 12th, 5th — those are numbers that spell a horse going through a difficult stretch. Yet it raced just yesterday, which tells you the team at Ciaran Murphy's yard in Mullingar still believe there is a performance in there worth chasing.

Murphy has had 18 winners this season, so this is an active and functioning yard, not one that is sending out horses on hope alone. Ben Coen, who rides Navagio most regularly, has won 1 of their 7 races together — roughly 1 in 7 — which is an honest enough partnership at this level. Navagio's best distance is somewhere between a mile and a furlong and a mile and two furlongs, and it has won 2 of 14 races at that range. That 14% win rate at its preferred trip is noticeably better than its overall average, suggesting the conditions have to be right for this horse to perform.

One factor that might be: wet ground. Navagio has won 2 of its 13 races on soft or muddy going, again around 1 in 7, which is the best rate of any ground type in its record. When the skies open over Ireland and the tracks get heavy underfoot, this is a horse that quietly becomes more interesting. The first career win came at The Curragh in May 2022, one of the most prestigious venues in Irish racing, which hints at what Navagio is capable of on its day. The challenge now is finding that day again.