Napolian

The horse runs best over distances between a mile and a furlong and a mile and two furlongs, where he has won one of three races—a 33% win rate that towers above his overall form. This is the real clue to Napolian's pattern: he is not broken, but he is particular. Get the trip right and he delivers. Get it wrong and he fades. His recent six races tell the story of a horse searching for answers: a second place, a fourth, an eleventh, a seventh, and two runs without mention of finishing in the frame, before that second-place finish just yesterday suggests some consistency is starting to show.

David O'Meara's Upper Helmsley yard in North Yorkshire has sent out 101 winners this season, so the operation is firing on all cylinders—a trainer clearly capable of getting horses where they need to be. O'Meara has indicated that Napolian disappointed after his debut last year but has improved physically over the winter. The yard clearly believes in the horse, and the fact that he is being run regularly at three years old suggests they see something worth pursuing. For a horse this young with only one win to his name, Napolian is not a finished article. But if the yard can keep him at his favoured distance and the penny drops the way it did that day at Leicester, he could yet become something more than a footnote.