Nakamura

The soft ground stat is the headline figure. Two wins from three races on wet or muddy ground — that is a 67% win rate, or roughly 2 in every 3 races when conditions suit. For context, that is an extraordinary conversion rate. Most horses would be thrilled with 1 in 3. What it tells you is that when the ground is soft, Nakamura is a genuine threat, not just a participant.

Both career wins have come in Ireland — the first at Navan in August 2025, the second at Cork at the end of September. The Cork win is the most recent, coming seven months ago, so there is a gap to account for. But the recent form sequence of 7-8-4-1-1-3 — read from most recent backwards — shows a horse that won back-to-back and has since been knocking on the door with a fourth and then trailing off slightly in its last two. It raced just one day ago, so this is a horse very much in active campaign.

The partnership with jockey Ben Coen is worth noting. Together they have won 2 of 7 races, a win rate of 29% — roughly 1 in every 3 and a half rides. That is meaningfully above the horse's overall average, suggesting Coen and Nakamura click. When the booking goes in for Coen, it tends to mean the yard fancies their chances.

That yard is trained by J P Murtagh, operating out of Coolaghknock Glebe in County Kildare — a yard that has sent out 54 winners already this season. That kind of output means Murtagh knows what he is doing with a young horse, and when one of his charges shows a soft-ground preference this strong, you can be fairly sure the team will be watching the weather forecast carefully before committing to their next target.