Must Believe

What makes Must Believe worth watching is the consistency of the last six races: 4th, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 1st, reading backwards. Two wins in that stretch, sandwiched around a second place, tells you this is a horse competing with purpose rather than just making up the numbers. It races primarily at Class 5 level — the bread-and-butter end of the sport — and has won 2 of 16 races at that grade, which sounds modest until you notice that the 3 wins in its career have all come in the right conditions and at the right trips.

Those conditions matter a great deal. On wet or muddy ground, Must Believe has won 2 of just 5 races — that is 40%, a remarkable figure that suggests the horse genuinely transforms when the ground is soft underfoot. Pair that with its preferred distance of a mile and three to a mile and four furlongs, where it has won 3 of 8 races, and a very clear picture emerges: get Must Believe to Kempton, over a mile-and-a-bit to a mile-and-a-half, on a wet day, and you have a serious contender.

Baker's yard has sent out 14 winners this season already, so this is not a team stumbling across results by accident. Must Believe had its first career win back in September 2025, also at Kempton, which in hindsight looks less like coincidence and more like the beginning of a meaningful relationship between horse and track. With a race just yesterday and form pointing sharply upward, this is one to keep an eye on whenever Kempton comes around.