Midnight Our Fred

The most striking number in his record is this: on normal ground, he has won 2 of his 5 races — 40%. That is a remarkable conversion rate, and it tells you that conditions matter enormously for this horse. Get the ground wrong and you're looking at a different animal entirely. Get it right, and he becomes a genuine contender.

He is trained by J.P. Flavin out of Tramore in County Waterford, a yard that has sent out 10 winners this season — a healthy return that suggests a stable in decent form. His most regular jockey is Danny Mullins, who has ridden him in 10 races and won once together. That's a modest record, but Mullins clearly knows this horse well, and familiarity counts for something. His last win came at Gowran Park in October 2024, which is now 19 months ago, and he hasn't won in his last six outings — though he has placed four times in that stretch, showing he keeps running his race even when the winner's enclosure eludes him.

What makes the next chapter genuinely interesting is where Flavin is pointing him. The trainer has spoken about targeting the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, a famous race run over around three and a quarter miles, on the basis that the trip could suit him better than the longer alternative. That assessment seems grounded in evidence — the horse has run well over that sort of distance before. Flavin also highlighted a recent run in the Paddy Power Chase where Midnight Our Fred jumped well, travelled smoothly through the race, quickened when asked, and did everything except win. Crucially, several of the horses who finished around him that day have since run well, which means the form from that race is looking stronger in hindsight than it might have seemed at the time.

This is not a horse with a glittering CV, but he is consistent, fit — he raced just yesterday — and being aimed at one of jump racing's most celebrated festivals. For a nine-year-old still competing at this level, that alone is worth noting.