Metal Merchant

The ground matters here. On normal conditions, Metal Merchant wins 2 from 7 races — that's a 29% win rate, which is genuinely impressive and roughly double its overall record. It tells you something straightforward: when the track is riding as it should, this horse is a different proposition. Wet or dry extremes appear to take the edge off.

The partnership with jockey David Probert is an interesting one. They've teamed up nine times together, producing one win — about 1 in every 9 races. That's not a bad record for a top-level racing partnership, but it also suggests there's still room for the combination to click in a bigger way. Brian Toomey, who trains Metal Merchant from his yard in Chalfont St Giles in Buckinghamshire, has sent out 10 winners already this season, so the stable is in decent form — even if Metal Merchant itself hasn't found the winner's enclosure in its last six races.

That winless run is the thing worth watching. The most recent form figures — 20, 12, 10, 9, 4, 7 — show a horse that was finishing well down the field before creeping closer, which could mean it's slowly working its way back to form. The fact that it raced just three days ago shows it's very much an active runner, and Toomey clearly believes there's a race to be won somewhere on the horizon. Given what this horse did at Newbury two years ago, it would be unwise to write it off entirely.