Melton Mossy

On his best days, he is a genuinely useful racehorse. Six wins from 25 races works out at roughly 1 in every 4 — a 24% win rate that would be the envy of plenty of horses at this level. Two of those wins have come in his last six outings, including a victory at Wincanton as recently as seven weeks ago, which suggests he is in decent form heading into his next race after a short break of 47 days. His recent run of results — a win, then sixth, then seventh, then another win — tells you everything about the Jekyll and Hyde nature of this horse.

The conditions that suit him are well established. On normal ground he has won 5 of his 12 races on that surface — almost 42%, which is a remarkable conversion rate and strongly suggests that if the ground is right, he turns up. He also appears to relish a distance of one mile six furlongs to two miles, winning 2 of just 4 races at that range, a 50% record that would be jaw-dropping if the sample were larger but is certainly worth noting. When the ground and the distance line up, Melton Mossy is genuinely dangerous.

His regular rider is Miss Eleanor Williams, who has been aboard for 8 of his races and partnered him to 1 win together — a modest 12% from that partnership, though the broader picture of the horse's form suggests the challenge is less about the jockey and more about getting Melton Mossy in the mood. The yard has sent out 3 winners this season, and with a horse like this in the string, there is always the chance of another when least expected. That unpredictability is, depending on your temperament, either the most frustrating or the most entertaining thing about following him.