Londoner

The raw numbers tell one story: 3 wins from 38 races is a win rate of roughly 1 in every 13, which on the face of it looks modest. But dig a little deeper and a more interesting picture emerges. On normal ground — not too wet, not too dry, just regular conditions — Londoner has won 3 times from 14 races, which works out at 21%, or roughly 1 in every 5. That is a completely different horse to the one who has never won at Class 2 level in 11 attempts. What you are looking at is a horse who has a very specific set of conditions in which he thrives, and when those conditions are met, he delivers.

His recent form is the most compelling reason to pay attention right now. Over his last six races, the results read 5-1-3-12-3-2 — one win, two placings, and only one real blip. He won at Lingfield Park just five weeks ago, and raced again only yesterday. That is a busy schedule, but it speaks to a horse who is in good health and being aimed at opportunities rather than wrapped in cotton wool. The Kubler yard has sent out 34 winners already this season, so this is a team operating with confidence and momentum behind them.

The trainer has spoken openly about the fact that Londoner was purchased at a horses-in-training sale last autumn — meaning he came from another yard relatively recently — and that there are more good races to come. That kind of public confidence from a trainer who has the winners on the board to back it up is worth taking seriously. Londoner may never win a top-level race, but for a horse quietly going about his business in competitive company, raced yesterday and apparently none the worse for it, the next few weeks look well worth following.