Livonian

The most encouraging thing about Livonian is what happens when he races at a mile to a mile and two furlongs. Over those distances he has won 1 from 4 races, a 25% win rate — one in every four — which is a considerably sharper picture than his overall numbers. Horses often have a "sweet spot" in terms of distance, and this range looks like his. Getting that right can make a real difference at the level he runs at.

He competes mostly at Class 5, which is the bread-and-butter end of British racing — competitive, but not the big occasion stuff. At that level he has won 1 from 3 races, meaning he wins one in three when the conditions suit, and that is a perfectly respectable return. His recent form tells an interesting story in reverse: reading from his last six races, the sequence goes 1-3-5-11-14-10. Flip that around chronologically and you see a horse who was struggling badly, then found a bit of consistency, then cracked it with that Windsor win. Whether he can build on it is the question — his five runs since that win have been mixed, with finishes of third and fifth showing he can still get into the picture, but also some disappointing days further back in the field.

He raced just yesterday, so he is firmly in the middle of an active campaign. At 4 years old he is still relatively young and has room to develop. Windsor in September clearly suited him — the track, the distance, the conditions all clicked. The task now is finding races where those ingredients come together again.