Lion of Alba

The form since that breakthrough tells a mixed story. Lion of Alba has raced four times in the eleven months that followed, and the results read 7-7-4-1-5-5 — which means one early return to the winner's circle, then a fourth-place finish, then a run of blanks. That single placed effort (a fourth) came at Chester itself, the only course where the horse has truly shown its best. Over distances between seven furlongs and a mile, it has won 1 race from 3 attempts — a 33 percent win rate at that trip, a fraction that catches the eye. Elsewhere and over different distances, it has struggled to replicate that.

With only 1 win and 1 place from 6 races overall, Lion of Alba sits at a 17 percent win rate — wins roughly 1 in every 5 or 6 outings — which marks it as a horse still hunting consistency. But that Class 2 victory was genuine, and Palmer's yard is thriving this season with 67 winners already to its name. The horse was last seen just over a day ago and remains in active training, so there is clearly unfinished business ahead. At Chester, over the right distance, Lion of Alba has shown it belongs in the frame. Getting it back there could be the key.