Law Of Supply

That context makes the horse's first career win, at Worcester in October 2024, feel like more than just a result. Bailey had long believed that fences, not hurdles, were where this horse would come alive — and he was proved spectacularly right. "I said Law Of Supply would never do anything until he goes over fences," Bailey said afterwards. "And he won really impressively." A month later came Ascot — one of British racing's grandest venues — and another win, with Bailey noting beforehand that he wanted to strike while the horse's handicap mark was in his favour. Two wins in five weeks, from a horse that had taken years to find its feet. It was a story worth telling.

Since then, though, the momentum has stalled. Law Of Supply has gone six races without a win, and his overall record of 2 wins from 14 races — roughly 1 in every 7 — tells the story of a horse that performs at Class 4 level, which is the mid-tier of British racing. At that level he has won just 1 from 9 attempts, about 11%, meaning he is competitive without being dominant. His jockey Tom Bellamy has been aboard for 5 of those races and won once together, which works out at 1 in 5 — actually better than the horse's overall average, though the sample is small enough that it probably reflects timing more than magic.

He returns here after a short break of 38 days, his last outing just over a month ago. The yard of Bailey and Nicholls has been in decent form this season — 31 winners is a healthy number — so the horse is coming back in reasonable hands. Whether he can rediscover that brief purple patch from the autumn of 2024 is the question. A horse who peaked with back-to-back wins and has since gone cold is frustrating to follow. But given what those first two wins meant — to a trainer who believed in him, and to an owner who never saw them — you might find yourself wanting him to do it one more time.