Law Of Average

The recent form looks scrappy on paper — the last six runs read 1-9-7-9-6-6, so for five of those races it was finishing well down the field. But that single "1" matters enormously: Law Of Average won at Bath just this week, on fast, dry ground, and that result reframes everything. A horse that can suddenly produce a win after a string of disappointing efforts is not one to write off. It suggests there are specific conditions that suit it, and when those conditions arrive, it delivers.

Ground matters a great deal here. On fast, dry ground, Law Of Average has won 2 of its 4 races — that is a 50% win rate, which is a remarkable figure at any level of racing. For context, even the best trainers in the country rarely win half their races on any given surface. This horse on a sunny day at a flat track is a genuinely different proposition.

The partnership with jockey Joey Haynes tells a similar story. They have raced together 20 times and won on 4 of those occasions — 1 in every 5 — which is a strong bond by any measure. When a jockey and horse find a rhythm like that over time, it tends to reflect genuine understanding rather than coincidence. Trainer Chelsea Banham, based at Cowlinge in Suffolk, has sent out 6 winners this season from her yard, and Law Of Average is one of her success stories. The very first win came at Chelmsford back in November 2023, and the horse has been building quietly ever since.

Most of Law Of Average's racing has come at Class 5 level — the sort of races where horses are closely matched and winning is never straightforward. At that grade, it has won 2 from 7, which is a 29% win rate and comfortably above average. This is not a horse chasing glory at the top level, but it is a horse that competes honestly, knows how to win, and just showed this week that it still has plenty to offer.