Lady Lilac

Her overall record — 1 win and 6 places from 11 races, roughly 1 win in every 11 outings — might not look spectacular on paper, but the placing record is the real story here. Six times out of eleven she has finished in the money without winning, which means she is consistently competitive rather than occasionally lucky. She is a horse that turns up, runs her race, and earns her keep. The question has always been whether she could find that extra gear to get her head in front.

The recent form suggests she is in the best shape of her career. Reading her last six races from most recent to oldest — fifth, sixth, first, second, second, third — you can see a horse that was building momentum, peaked with a win, and has since been finding her level again after likely stepping up in class or facing fresher competition. The sixth-place finish in her most recent run is worth watching, but she raced just yesterday, so the team clearly has her in good form and are willing to keep her busy.

Gary Carroll has been the regular partner aboard Lady Lilac, riding her in 5 of her 11 races and winning once together — a win rate of 20%, or 1 in every 5 rides. That is a solid return, and when the yard put Carroll up, it is usually a sign they mean business. Murphy's yard has been in fine form this season, sending out 19 winners, so Lady Lilac is operating in a team that knows how to get horses winning. At four years old, she still has time to build on that breakthrough at Killarney and turn herself from a consistent placer into something more.