Keilah

That one moment of glory came at Punchestown on 17 September 2024, and it remains the only win on the record. Punchestown is one of Ireland's most beloved tracks, with a real festival atmosphere even on an ordinary racing day, and getting it right there is no small thing. The problem is that win now sits 20 months in the past, and the six races since have brought a seventh, two thirds, a second, and two non-completions — close enough to keep hope alive, but never quite close enough.

At the distance range where Keilah seems most at home — between a mile and one furlong and a mile and two furlongs — the picture brightens slightly. One win from five races at those trips is a 20% win rate, or 1 in every 5, which is dramatically better than the overall career average. That is the kind of stat that tells a trainer exactly where to aim a horse, and Mark Michael McNiff, who operates out of Strandhill in County Sligo, will know it well. His yard has sent out five winners already this season, so there is form and confidence behind the operation.

Nathan Crosse has ridden Keilah seven times and been there for the one win — a 14% win rate together, or 1 from 7, which is a decent enough partnership record given how rarely this horse reaches the winner's enclosure. Keilah raced just one day ago, which means this is a horse right in the middle of its season, fit and active and presumably still being aimed at the right opportunities. Whether another Punchestown moment is coming is anyone's guess, but the combination of the right distance and the right track has worked once before — and sometimes that is enough to keep believing.