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Kate O'Riley

There's a bloodline story worth knowing here before you even look at the form book. Kate O'Riley is a half-sister to Big Orange, the horse that won the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot — one of the most prestigious flat races in the world. That kind of pedigree sets expectations, and at four years old, she's already showing she can live up to them.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
4 years old
Sex
Filly
Colour
Bay
Father
Sea The Moon
Mother
Miss Brown To You
Trainer
Owner
The Gredley Family
Rating
86

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
15
Career races
3
Wins
20%
Win rate
avg ~10%
46.7%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

Trained by James Owen at his Newmarket yard — a stable that has fired out 204 winners this season alone, which is a remarkable throughput — Kate O'Riley has won 3 races from 15, a win rate of roughly 1 in every 5. That's a solid return at her level, where she typically competes in Class 4 races: the bread-and-butter middle tier of the sport, below the headline events but far from easy. At that level she has won 2 from 7, nearly 1 in 3, which suggests she's genuinely competitive when the race fits her. Her first win came at Wolverhampton in November 2024, and her most recent at Ludlow in October 2025 — and it was after that Ludlow win that Owen revealed he had his eye on a Grade 2 race at Cheltenham's November meeting, a race his yard has won twice before. That is a significant step up in class, from everyday races to one of the top events in the calendar.

What makes her interesting is where she does her best work. On normal ground and over longer distances — between a mile and six furlongs and two miles — she wins 2 from 6, or 1 in every 3 races. That's a meaningful pattern. She's not a horse who wants a flat-out sprint on quick ground; she wants to stretch out, settle, and stay. Her jockey Jack Doughty put it plainly after her Wolverhampton win, noting that she dug deep when it mattered and that stepping up in distance would bring significant improvement.

Her recent run of form tells a mixed story: no win in her last six races, with two third-place finishes and a second sandwiched around some disappointing efforts. She raced just yesterday, so she is clearly being kept busy. Whether the team is searching for the right opportunity or building towards something bigger isn't clear, but a yard of 204 winners doesn't run a horse with Grade 2 potential without a plan. The best of Kate O'Riley may still be ahead of her.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on standard ground: 2 wins from 6 starts (33%)
Well suited by 1m6f – 2m distances: 33% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 3 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Standard (all-weather)
Loves
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Good to firm (drying out)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Unknown
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Good (firm-ish)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
1M6F – 2M
Loves
1M1F – 1M2F
Unknown
1M3F – 1M4F
Avoids
Long Distance (2M+)
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 1 (elite)
Avoids
Class 4 (standard)
Class 5 (entry-level)
Unknown
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Left-handed, tight
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Long straights
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
8 May
11th
Chester
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 17 runners
4 Apr
3rd
Musselburgh
1m6f – 2m · Good_To_Soft · 6 runners
4 Mar
2nd
Southwell
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard
10 Feb
6th
Lingfield Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 12 runners
28 Nov
6th
Newbury
Long Distance (2m+) · Soft · 12 runners
15 Nov
3rd
Cheltenham
Long Distance (2m+) · Heavy · 12 runners
8 Oct
🏆 Won
Ludlow
1m6f – 2m · Good_To_Firm · 6 runners
25 Sep
4th
Newmarket
1m6f – 2m · Good · 9 runners
19 Jul
10th
Newmarket
1m6f – 2m · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
7 May
5th
Chester
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 7 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
50%
Win rate
1/2
Won / Rode
50%
Win rate
1/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
100%
Win rate
1/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Mason Paetel
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Newmarket
Galloping
3 3 other 25 Sep 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
2 2 wins 24 Mar 100%
Chester
Tight
2 2 other 8 May 0%
Southwell
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 other 4 Mar 0%
Ludlow
Undulating
1 1 win 8 Oct 100%
Cheltenham
Galloping
1 1 third 15 Nov 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
1 1 other 10 Feb 0%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 other 28 Nov 0%
chelmsford 1 1 second 17 Oct 0%
Musselburgh
Sharp
1 1 third 4 Apr 0%