Karamoja

Start with the ground. On wet or muddy going, Karamoja has won 2 of just 5 races — a 40% win rate. That is a remarkable conversion, and it matters enormously. Most horses are broadly consistent across conditions; Karamoja is transformed by rain. When the ground is soft and heavy and other horses are slipping and struggling, this one is in its element. Trainers and jockeys remember that kind of thing.

The trainer in question is Willie Mullins, arguably the most dominant force in Irish jump racing, operating out of Muine Bheag in Co Carlow. His yard has sent out 220 winners already this season alone — a staggering figure that reflects an operation running at a level most yards can only dream of. Horses trained by Mullins are prepared for specific targets, and the fact that Karamoja has found its niche suggests the team knows exactly what they have on their hands.

Paul Townend, one of the best jump jockeys in the business, has partnered Karamoja in 6 of its 11 races and won 2 of them — a win rate of 1 in 3 together, which is a strong connection between horse and rider. Their partnership produced the most recent win at Thurles in March 2026, eight weeks ago, following an earlier success at Clonmel in February 2025. Two wins at two different tracks, both in the depths of winter when Irish ground is at its most punishing — the pattern could not be clearer.

The recent form does show some inconsistency — a seventh and a sixth sandwiched around that Thurles win — but Karamoja raced just one day ago and is clearly in active training. With a horse this specific about conditions, the yard will be watching the weather forecast as closely as the racecards. Find the right wet winter afternoon, put Townend in the saddle, and Karamoja has already shown it can deliver.