John La Bear

The interesting thing about John La Bear is that he clearly has a distance preference. Over races between a mile and an eighth and a mile and a quarter—the sweet spot where he seems to run best—he has won 1 from his last 5 attempts, a 20 per cent win rate. On anything shorter or longer, he looks out of his depth. That kind of specificity matters because it gives his trainer Ross O'Sullivan something concrete to work with. When a horse doesn't fire across the board, finding the exact distance where it switches on can be the difference between a modest performer and one worth watching.

O'Sullivan's yard at Kilcullen, in Kildare, has had a solid season with 40 winners so far, so John La Bear is at least in a stable with recent form and know-how. But the plain truth is that this horse needs to start winning again soon if he is to justify his place in the team. One win in nine races over a career is a tough return, and eight months between victories is a long time to be waiting for another breakthrough. He raced just yesterday, so there is clearly still faith in his chances, but at three years old he is running out of time to prove he belongs in the winners' circle more often than once every nine times out.