Itica

The recent form tells a story of a horse settling into racing. Last time out came a sixth place, before that a solid fifth, then a second-place finish, then twelfth. Getting beaten into second place suggests Itica has the speed to run with decent company, even when the wins haven't come. With one win in five races, the horse is clicking roughly 20 per cent of the time — not spectacular for a 3-year-old with just five starts, but entirely normal for a horse still learning the game.

Itica runs for Andrew Balding's Kingsclere yard in Hampshire, a powerhouse operation that has sent out 202 winners already this season. Being trained by one of Britain's top yards counts for something; horses that run this regularly and win this often tend to know what they are doing. Itica is still active and only recently raced, so the team clearly believes there is more to come. The next few months will tell whether that first win at Goodwood was the start of something or simply a first step in a longer journey.