Ironwill

The most telling thing about this horse is what it does on fast, dry ground. When conditions favour quick going, Ironwill becomes a different proposition entirely, winning two of four races — a 50% rate — on those surfaces. Compare that to its overall 30% record and you can see where its strength lies. Equally, the horse shows a clear preference for shorter distances between five and six and a half furlongs, winning two of four races at that range. These are not small preferences; they are a map of where to run this horse to get the best from it.

Ironwill broke through at Brighton on 1 September last year, and has since claimed victories at Newmarket on 4 July — eight weeks ago — and one other. That July win at Newmarket looks like the moment this horse showed what it could do when everything aligned, but the six races since have been mostly underwhelming. The most recent form reads 4-10-2-1-3-5 across its last six races, which means only two places in the last six runs and nothing better than a second. It raced just yesterday, so the horse is being campaigned regularly by trainer Stuart Williams at Newmarket, a yard that has sent out 67 winners this season and clearly knows how to train a winner. The challenge now is working out whether Ironwill's dip is temporary or whether that July success was the peak. Either way, the next race on suitable ground at the right distance could tell us plenty.