If Not For Dylan

What makes If Not For Dylan genuinely interesting is how the conditions shape everything. On wet or muddy ground, the horse has won 3 from 9 races — that is a 33% win rate, or roughly 1 in every 3, which is a striking number at any level. For context, most good horses win somewhere between 1 in 5 and 1 in 8 of their races overall, so tripling that rate in a specific condition is not a coincidence — it is a pattern. Trainer Lucinda Russell, who runs the yard alongside Michael Scudamore at Milnathort in Perth and Kinross, knows this well. She noted recently that the rain at Aintree came at the wrong time last Sunday — which might sound odd, but the suggestion is clear enough: the wrong kind of wet, or wet arriving too late to properly suit, can be just as unhelpful as dry ground.

Perth is the track to watch. Two wins from 6 races there — a 33% win rate — marks it out as a happy hunting ground, and given the yard's proximity to the Scottish course, that is unlikely to be an accident. The team has sent out 49 winners this season, which speaks to a busy, well-organised operation that knows how to place horses shrewdly. Derek Fox takes the ride most often, having won 1 of his 8 outings together, but the horse's record suggests the right conditions matter far more than the partnership.

Russell describes If Not For Dylan as a lovely old horse who jumps well and looks made for staying veterans' chases — the longer, tougher contests designed for older horses. "Really tough on his day" is the phrase that sticks, and after 32 races at eleven years old, toughness is perhaps the most fitting tribute of all.